PPC Scenario Planner
Simulate CPC bids × daily budgets × conversion assumptions and see ACoS, TACoS, ROAS, break-even thresholds, and Monte-Carlo profit bands per scenario. The auction is modeled with an impression-share curve on bid, and organic sales pick up halo lift from ad orders.
Contribution margin
46.0%
(price − cost − FBA − referral)/price
Break-even ACoS
46.0%
Profit-neutral ACoS on the ad-attributed sale
Break-even ROAS
2.17×
1 / break-even ACoS
Selling price
$29.99
Model uses this for adSales & organicSales
Product & market inputs
Scenarios
| Name | CPC | Budget/day | Ad Conv. | CTR | Halo | Imp. share | Clicks/day | Ad orders | Ad spend | ACoS | ROAS | TACoS | Profit p50 | Band (5–95%) | Binding | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.5% | 53 | 4.8 | $40 | 27.8% | 3.60× | 12.2% | $111 | $83 | budget | |||||||
| 50.0% | 75 | 7.5 | $90 | 40.0% | 2.50× | 21.6% | $106 | $56 | budget | |||||||
| 78.3% | 95 | 10.4 | $180 | 57.6% | 1.74× | 35.0% | $57 | -$9 | budget | |||||||
| 94.9% | 125 | 13.8 | $350 | 84.9% | 1.18× | 56.0% | -$53 | -$141 | budget |
Binding = budget means the CPC would win more clicks than the budget allows (raise budget to unlock scale). Binding = impressions means impression share is the limit (raise bid or CTR). ACoS turns red once it crosses your break-even ACoS (46.0%).
Profit vs CPC — sweep with 5–95% band
Sweep re-solves profit at every CPC from $0.20–$3.50, holding budget, conv, CTR, halo fixed. Shaded band is a Monte-Carlo 5–95% profit range (log-normal conv noise CV≈30%, Gaussian CPC noise CV≈15%).